Most Surprising (Possible) Renewal: Even though The Fix is probably the longest shot at ABC right now, I think I would be more surprised to see more For the People. The show already had something of a surprise renewal last season despite coming out of the gate sluggish and isn’t near enough to syndication for ABC to make this big of a reach, especially when they’re trying to better their drama slate. Plus, the network found a new Thursday player in A Million Little Things, so there’s not enough scheduling room for the (probable) final season of How to Get Away with Murder and more Station 19 along with a third For the People season. ABC is also wedded to the TGIT brand, so I can’t see For the People existing on another night or being pushed into the summer on an Instinct/Trial & Error tip.
Show That Likely Won’t Be Renewed But Should Be: I wouldn’t go as far as saying that Splitting Up Together should be renewed; ABC is a logjam and a half right now and it’s an unowned sophomore comedy whose ratings dropped by almost half without the Roseanne halo, so they don’t need it. However, its shown pretty decent L+SD retention from Black-ish and is staying right with the show in L+3 despite less promotion and no syndication exposure. If ABC were less comedy crowded or if the Disney merger wasn’t a thing, I could maybe see Splitting Up Together in the renewal conversation, but there’s too much working against it right now for a renewal to happen.
Possible Scheduling Disaster: Whatever they do with their comedies will probably be a mess. There are so many moving parts to account for, they don’t have enough lead-in caliber shows, and their development isn’t terribly promising, so I feel like them producing 2-3 nights of well-constructed comedy would be a miracle.
Possible Biggest Surprise: I would be surprised if How to Get Away with Murder isn’t in the fall. It’s been an important part of ABC since it premiered and it stars an Oscar winner in Viola Davis, so to have it bumped down to midseason wouldn’t feel right. I think that it very likely gets the goodbye treatment in fall, which allows ABC one less slot/show to worry about and the focus to go toward what should be a hectic beginning of the week for them.
Safest Bet: As far as scheduling articles, the safest bet is that I will be very wrong. But in terms of ABC, I think the safest bet is that The Goldbergs and Schooled will be together again in the fall. The former is getting up there in years and ABC will want to groom the latter to potentially take over the 8:00 slot when its parent show finally concludes. ABC’s whole comedy situation is very messy right now, so The Goldbergs/Schooled are an easy, compatible pair to keep together while tinkering with other hours.
Project I’m Rooting For: For one reason or another, ABC has been deeply reticent to launch a family drama despite how strong their comedy brand was for so long and how they’ve cornered the market on broadcast for female viewers. That’s why I’d like to see sibling drama Heart of Life ordered; it’s the type of show that would resonate with ABC’s core audience and give them the serialized, female-targeting series that can help them return to #1 with female viewers.
The One That Will [Probably] Get Away: The Baker and the Beauty is a bit of a silly title with a premise that’s not breaking any new ground, but I think it sounds like something that could be charming, romantic, and very ABC. Broadcast television needs more predominantly Latinx ensembles and I’m always here for relationship-based dramas, so I hope that it can pull through despite its current lack of buzz.
What ABC Needs: In terms of scheduling, ABC needs to figure out a way to get dramas sampled. Their current dramas with at least three seasons are Grey’s (almost old enough to drive), How to Get Away with Murder (on its last legs), and The Good Doctor (season 3 starts in fall). Even already renewed freshman success A Million Little Things only came alive in L+SD when it got a compatible lead-in and 9:00 slot upon its move to Thursdays, so ABC has to find a way to avoid stranding dramas in troublesome slots. If they don’t move Dancing with the Stars, though, or at the very least reduce it to an hour, I’m not sure how they can remedy this, though.
