Analyzing the 2016 Fall Schedule: FOX

SHILO’S SUPERLATIVES

Most Promising Trailer: Star was surprisingly great. Even though I love me a girl group, I thought that the show would be a carbon copy of Empire – reliant on opulence, catty one-liners, and twists while not remaining grounded on the music industry and journey to stardom. But the Star trailer has the grittiness and fight that Empire lacks; it looks like a show with characters to root for, a narrative with a lot of room to grow, and real stakes motivating every decision they make. Plus, the music previewed was very catchy, so I’m in.

Most Anticipated New Show: I’m all about The Mick. Kaitlin Olson has been doing stellar work on It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia for 11 seasons and I’m thrilled that she gets a chance to showcase her talents on a bigger stage. The concept isn’t the most original thing in the world, but the trailer makes The Mick look like dirtier Grandfathered and has weird enough energy to where I want to see where it goes.

Best Scheduling Move: Son of Zorn on fall Sundays is good. It has a tougher concept to sell and the football bump will help get eyes on it, so FOX obviously believes in the show’s creative side. And it’s nice that broadcast is still willing to give strange shows like this great spots on the schedule, so I hope that Son of Zorn holds up its end of the bargain and keeps FOX’s comedy brand as appreciatively off-kilter as ever.

Worst Scheduling Move: I worry about Pitch. It’s up against it thanks to a low lead-in and Thursday Night Football, not to mention airing at 9:00 when it seemed like arguably FOX’s most family friendly new drama. It might generate enough buzz (and male viewers) to stay afloat on a tough night, but I think the show was cut off at the knees by FOX’s scheduling. Which is a shame because not only do we not get many sports dramas on TV, this is/was a chance for a sports drama with a black female lead to really take off and I can’t see it being a breakout hit at this point.

Most Likely New Hit: I think Lethal Weapon will do pretty well, at least initially. The trailer went over better than I expected, it’s something that could draw in affiliate viewers, and it’s in a great spot on the schedule, so this thing should get sampled. It’s less potentially off-putting than Son of Zorn and scheduled better than Pitch and The Exorcist, so if a FOX fall show is going to be a hit, this is it. What it has to do in order to take advantage of the solid position it’s been put in is show that this isn’t a perfunctory cash grab from FOX; show audiences why a Lethal Weapon television series is necessary in 2016. If it justifies itself creatively, I think it will sustain itself just fine.

Likely First Cancellation: Since I think the Empire lead-out will help buoy Lethal Weapon and Son of Zorn will have access to the FOX football halo, this will come down to Pitch and The Exorcist. Neither has a great lead-in, a decent time slot for sampling, or a possibility for 22 episodes, so there is a world where both air out their orders and FOX looks the other way for a majority of their runs. I feel like The Exorcist is easier to replace, though, given that it occupies a lower priority slot where repeats, unscripted fare, or a syndication project could prove to be more valuable, even if they don’t match the Live + Same Day ratings for the TV adaptation.

What I’ll Be Watching in the Fall: I’ll be camped out on FOX Sundays, as Bob’s Burgers is still lovely and weird six seasons in, Son of Zorn has the potential for greatness, and The Last Man on Earth‘s beginning/ending highs are worth dealing with the middle lows. I might give Pitch a shot because I like Kylie Bunbury, but I’m not a baseball fan, so I don’t know if it’s something I would stick with.

CRAIG’S CHOICES

Most Promising Trailer: The new comedies were actually funny, so that’s a plus right there, but I, too, will go with Star. It looked very atmospheric, and like nothing else currently seen on television. I wish more TV did that; striving for originality and mood. It’s not an Empire clone, which I also appreciated.

Most Anticipated New Show: I definitely want to see Star, but The Mick, Son of Zorn, and Making History are all on my “really want to see” list. And I’m also very curious about the Prison Break update, even though I didn’t watch much of the original show.

Best Scheduling Move: Star as a good substitute for Empire is probably my favorite scheduling choice, though it isn’t so much of a “move.”

Worst Scheduling Move: I don’t know what’s worse: The not-so-ratings-strong Tuesdays or what FOX did to Thursdays, which could potentially be a mess.

Most Likely New Hit: Star. I also think The Mick could really hit big if people sample it.

Likely First Cancellation: The Exorcist. Though I can see them running through all 13 episodes.

What I’ll Be Watching in the Fall: The aforementioned “anticipated new shows” are definitely on my list. I’ll check out Lethal Weapon and Pitch most likely. If we’re looking to midseason, APB looks a lot more interesting than I expected; almost like Person of Interest, so I’ll be checking that out for sure.