Analyzing the 2016 Fall Schedule: ABC

CRAIG’S CHOICES

Most Promising Trailer: I feel like I’m echoing my NBC response, but I love time travel, so Time After Time was really interesting to me, even though it’s not running until midseason. I have to say I was also impressed by the trailer for Speechless. I expected the concept to just be a bummer, but the execution was anything but. I should have known better, having enjoyed Minnie Driver in About a Boy.

Most Anticipated New Show: Time After Time. Gimme that pilot, ABC!

Best Scheduling Move: Although I’m scratching my head a little at the cancellations of both Castle and Nashville, I admire new ABC president Channing Dungey for not keeping the dead weight. So often shows are kept so far past their expiration dates, and it’s ballsy and smart to at least try new things.

Worst Scheduling Move: Picking up an entire series about a dog’s inner monologue. The show itself is cute, but will people watch Downward Dog for more than an episode? Really? Wherever it lands: Disaster. Unless people make a Smash out of it and hate-watch for the lulz, proving they’re among “the cool kids.”

In all seriousness, I think the potentially worst scheduling move – even though I predicted it – might be Conviction. If people aren’t flocking to it after Dancing, ABC might be better off putting something else on (Quantico?) that would make better use of the Dancing with the Stars lead-in.

Most Likely New Hit: Speechless. You can’t get a better timeslot than that one.

Likely First Cancellation: Of the fall shows? I think all of them may have a good chance, though Notorious might be the most vulnerable if it doesn’t attract the Shonda audience. Chances are it’ll run its however-many episodes, though, and the first actual cancellation will be Downward Dog on Week 3. If I’m right, someone had better send dog treats to my Scottish Terrier as a prize. Much respect from me, though, that you liked it. I admit it wasn’t bad, I just don’t know how it will sustain itself.

What I’ll Be Watching in the Fall: I will at the very least catch most of the Wednesday lineup on DVR after the fact and I’ll surely do the same with The Real O’Neals and Fresh Off the Boat, most likely. American Housewife could be fun, too, and I’ll also still be checking in on Once Upon A Time.  As for the dramas, at least for the fall, I’m not extremely excited or interested. Maybe that will change once I’ve seen some pilots.

SHILO’S SUPERLATIVES

Most Promising Trailer: Speechless was quite good. I was wondering what a show with this premise would be like and it seems like something that would be right at home with the Modern Familys and Middles of the world, which is welcome news for ABC. Even though ABC can make a good family comedy in its sleep, particularly one that meshes with the rest of its lineup, it’s nice that they’re continuing to push boundaries by tackling topics that given dimension to their brand. Would any other network take a shot on comedies about a teenager who comes out of the closet, a Chinese family moving to a mostly white neighborhood, or a child with special needs and make each series palatable to a broad audience? I really don’t think so, which is the magic of what ABC’s been doing for years.

Most Anticipated New Show: Believe it or not, Downward Dog. It’s the only pilot I’ve been able to screen thus far and not giving anything away, it blew me away. I’m very curious to see what this show looks like on a weekly basis and whether this type of show can work somewhere like ABC. I hope it can because I like to think that broadcast television is still open to weird concepts and that unique projects don’t have to be shuttled off to small cable networks in order to have a chance at success. Broadcast should be able to nurture special shows that it believes in and if Downward Dog can fulfill its potential, it could be something pretty darn special.

Best Scheduling Move: I love the four comedy lineup on Tuesdays. Even if these four comedies in particular wind up not working together, structurally this is the best option for ABC given how well the network does with comedy and how Wednesday benefits from the flow of its comedies. The best ways to fix troublesome nights for you are to move strong veterans and pivot to what you do best and ABC did just that by moving The Middle and expanding their comedy presence. Plus, they did the right thing by not bowing to their corporate overlords and pushing Marvel’s Agents of SHIELD back to 10:00, thereby making sure they won’t have to cycle umpteen shows in the slot for yet another season.

Worst Scheduling Move: I really don’t think there’s a bad scheduling move on this schedule. Of course, there are going to be things that don’t work and we don’t know which veterans are going to be in trouble, but on paper, I feel like every night makes sense and everything is set up to improve upon last season. If it breaks right, ABC still has a ways to go to get back on top of the scripted heap, but this type of scheduling, smart risks and using their assets on new shows, will go a lot of way toward helping them rebuild in a hurry. Props to ABC for learning from last year’s overly confident schedule that ended up being too static and didn’t sustain what ratings momentum they had built up.

Most Likely New Hit: The biggest bow will almost certainly be Designated Survivor, which generated the most talk of any new ABC project thanks to its star and very strong trailer. Plus, ABC’s top freshman this past season was the similar Quantico, so ABC audiences aren’t shy about devouring shows with this type of content. I do wonder, though, about how sustainable the premise is for a full 22-episode season, so I could very well see something like Conviction standing tall as the lead freshman at the end of the season. Where Conviction is a procedural that doesn’t veer too far from ABC’s tonal sweet spot, it’s not as vulnerable to big drops as a show like Designated Survivor, which seems like something that will at the very least lean serial; therefore, I think Conviction could close whatever gap presents itself and creatively sustain itself in ways that Designated Survivor might not be able to, given its structure and tone.

Likely First Cancellation: Honestly, I don’t think any newbie is in that bad a position, so trying to predict which one falls first is tricky. Notorious is probably safe through the end of the calendar year with Scandal set to return in early 2017. Conviction might end up as one of ABC’s older-skewing dramas, but it has the perfect lead-in and differs enough from CBS and NBC that I think it’ll find its place. While the comedies might be a little vulnerable due to both The Middle and The Goldbergs moving time slots, they’re both on nights that are well put together and definitively on brand for ABC, so each could easily get a foothold in the ratings. For the purpose of this article, I’ll go with American Housewife, since the name is almost aggressively generic and the show’s tone clashes more with the rest of the ABC lineup than something like Speechless.

What I’ll Be Watching in the Fall: My only fall returnee on ABC is The Real O’Neals, which is a good show whose continued existence is important, but I’ll be sampling American Housewife, Speechless, and Notorious. Designated Survivor isn’t my type of show and I didn’t watch 24, so my attachment to Kiefer Sutherland in political thrillers is non-existent, but I’ll probably watch the pilot to see what the buzz is about.