Most Surprising (Possible) Renewal: Aside from shows that are pretty much already cancelled (e.g. Conviction, Notorious, Secrets and Lies), I would be most surprised at a renewal for The Catch. I probably shouldn’t be, considering the amount of influence Shonda has at ABC, but the show has no ratings argument to continue and doesn’t have any compelling factor aside from its executive producer to continue its existence. While the cast is, of course, very good, it’s doing pretty poorly in the live ratings (hitting 0.5s at 10:30), is a million years from syndication, and doesn’t have much international pull, considering that Quantico has a far bigger episode count and bigger international lead. Where ABC will put the Shonda legal drama on in the fall, I think they should be able to let The Catch go. You’d think.
Show That Likely Won’t Be Renewed But Should Be: With the highest rated World Series in decades, Election Day, the State of the Union, and multiple presidential addresses all hitting Tuesdays between November and January, The Real O’Neals would’ve had a tough enough time establishing itself in a later time slot. Pile on This Is Us, a monumentally rated family drama pulling the same audience as the ABC family shows, and it’s impossible for any show to make it, much less something that was already facing an uphill battle as it addresses divorce, religion, and sexuality. With The Real O’Neals popping at 8:30 in its lone airing there and doing similar numbers to what it was doing last season, one would think ABC would see that the time slot was killing a comedy that it owned and attempt to put stronger shows there while nurturing The Real O’Neals elsewhere. But alas, it’s yet another casualty in a long line of early exits for LGBT-fronted content.
Possible Scheduling Disaster: I really have two possible disasters. Bringing Quantico back in any capacity would be dumb; unless the international money is overwhelmingly large and enough to offset what they’d lose from advertising, it needs to be cancelled. If it’s doing 0.5s after one of ABC’s best lead-ins, it’d be looking at 0.3s next season with any kind of lead-in reduction. Also, I think that airing comedies in the opening weeks of This Is Us will bite ABC hard. Why put a genre that conflicts with one of the biggest shows on TV up against it for the second year in a row? If there’s any show on TV ABC should duck, it’s This Is Us, but I just don’t have the confidence that they’ll do the right thing and lay low until later in the fall.
Possible Biggest Surprise: I would be surprised if ABC renewed all four of Quantico, Once Upon a Time, The Catch, and Agents of SHIELD. While each has something positive in its corner, ABC can’t grow if it holds on to every bubble drama for a season too long, particularly if they use them to clog good slots. You can’t completely makeover a schedule in one year, but where ABC was willing to get rid of both Castle and Nashville last season, I would be surprised if they became more conservative and kept everything, particularly since they seem to be hoarding the no-brainer renewals to mask their cancellations in May.
Safest Bet: The Shonda drama will be picked up to series. ABC loves Shonda and they want to keep the TGIT branding going, so with Scandal getting up there, they need to use Grey’s on something else. The legal drama will get a much better treatment than Notorious got and though moving Scandal will give the other networks the opportunity to be aggressive here, I think ABC should be able to survive mostly unscathed on the strength of its brand.
Project I’m Rooting For: Deception could be a lot of fun. The logline is a little silly, but TV needs more silliness nowadays and where this is from some of the creatives behind Forever, I think it could be a fun, self-aware silly packed with visual spectacle and a surprising amount of depth.
ESSENTIAL LINKS
Upfronts 2017: Assessing Each Network’s Needs
ABC’s 2016-2017 Schedule: Thoughts & Predictions
Analyzing the 2016 Fall Schedule: ABC
We’re running all five prediction articles on the same day this year! Find all of the networks below:
NBC – FOX – ABC – CBS – The CW
