Most Promising Trailer: Schooled. The Goldbergs spinoff pilot aired earlier this year was… just okay but I liked how the trailer incorporated AJ Michalka’s Lainey and I’m really curious to see what she brings to the new mix. Still, it was a really good trailer.
Most Anticipated New Show: Grand Hotel. Looks slightly trashy but oh so much fun.
Best Scheduling Move: I’m not a fan of The Rookie trailer but I do think it’s a great choice for Tuesdays at 10. With Roseanne at 8 and Black-ish at 9, the network really could make themselves contenders on the night, especially with a familiar star at 10.
Worst Scheduling Move: Single Parents after Modern Family. It’s not the worst thing, but you’d think something stronger would go before A Million Little Things. I also fear that the “new” TGIF shows, while I like the shows, won’t make a splash and therefore will just die there.
Most Likely New Hit: The Kids Are Alright will get decent sampling at the start of the season, but I’m, again, going with The Rookie. Familiar star + easy to digest concept seems like a win. A Million Little Things could get the nod, but I think it’s a harder sell than the Fillion series can do. (A Fillion Little Things?)
Likely First Cancellation: Aka, the first show to disappear. Fresh Off The Boat, I love ya but if this Friday thing doesn’t work, I’d get scared.
What I’ll Be Watching in the Fall: In the Fall? The Goldbergs. Also, fellow liberal friends don’t hate me… Roseanne. And I still want to binge Black-ish sometime.
Most Promising Trailer: The A Million Little Things trailer did something interesting. I assumed that it would slather on the emotional manipulation to a shameless degree, but instead of leaning on a premise genetically designed for social media crying contests, it gave a peek at a sense of humor that should serve the show well. Knowing that the grief inherent to its premise isn’t going to be smothering makes me think that there’s a show here once the initial shock of the catalyzing event in the pilot, which is intriguing.
Most Anticipated New Show: Since I love a good scandalous soap, I’m all about Grand Hotel. The cinematography, the location scouting, the costume budget – majestic. The cast is all gorgeous, with Demian Bichir likely grounding the show with his performance, while it’s encouraging to see broadcast television still embracing fun, female-skewing properties through the continued presence of soaps. Plus, the ensemble here is primarily Latinx, only one of two on the Big Five (the other being Jane the Virgin), so I’m all about supporting it.
Best Scheduling Move: Weirdly, I think this might be The Rookie. It’s going against fellow newbie New Amsterdam and a NCIS: New Orleans that’s seen its best ratings days, so the competition isn’t too heavy. It has a decent lead-in in Splitting Up Together, which should go as Black-ish goes while tagging along in an hour helped by Roseanne. And it stars Nathan Fillion, who ABC audiences liked on Castle and who helped American Housewife to good ratings at the end of the season. I don’t think The Rookie is going to be a monster in the ratings, but I have a feeling it’ll be the last man standing in its time slot.
Worst Scheduling Move: Two newbies back-to-back to close Wednesdays just doesn’t feel right. The only way I’m comfortable with consecutive new shows is if one has some type of IP awareness, so two original properties ending the night following a Modern Family that was staggering by the end of this season isn’t inspiring. You’re just asking for something to underperform and I feel like putting this much pressure on new shows isn’t the recipe for success.
Most Likely New Hit: The Kids Are Alright. It should be well-sampled after Roseanne and it’s in the type of Goldbergs-y format that ABC audiences like. There’s valid concern about a period comedy on broadcast television and whether ’70s nostalgia can carry it in the demo like ’80s nostalgia helped The Goldbergs, but that lead-in and the ABC audience’s clear preference for apolitical/politically conservative comedy makes me think that it should be more than fine.
Likely First Cancellation: The most vulnerable scripted newbie is probably Single Parents. The Kids Are Alright seems compatible with both its Roseanne lead-in and the ABC comedy audience’s preferences; The Rookie has Nathan Fillion, a figure the ABC audience clearly likes, and what should be a decent lead-in in Splitting Up Together; and A Million Little Things has no serialized drama competition and a fair amount of buzz. Single Parents might be a little offbeat for the ABC audience’s taste considering it’s from the New Girl creator and ABC comedies tend to live and die by the strength of its child actors/characters, which aren’t the focus here. I don’t think it’s going to be a flop, but if any of the four newbies ABC is fielding this fall stumble, I think this is it.
What I’ll Be Watching in the Fall: I’ll be checking out A Million Little Things, which seems more like The Big Chill than This Is Us despite some tics in the trailer that remind me of the latter.
