Analyzing the 2016 Fall Schedule: The CW

If there’s one thing about the upfronts season that we’ve learned this season, it’s that an entire schedule can depend upon one move. Whether it be a sudden, unexpected cancellation or a surprising series pickup, what you thought a network could do immediately changes upon the final roster of shows they decide to take into next season. It’s a major part of why predicting fall schedules is such a fool’s errand, that tendency for there to be moves no one thought could happen actually happening, but KSiteTV’s Craig Byrne and Shilo Adams look at these type of moves and laugh in their face. For the fourth year in a row, the two TV fans predicted what each network could/would do next fall and subsequently analyzed what each network will do next fall. In addition, you’ll find what they think about everything from the best trailer to the worst scheduling move, most of which they’ll probably end up being wrong about.

Before you dig into the article, though, you can check out links to our full slate of scheduling predictions and fall analysis articles below, as well as links to the trailers for each of The CW’s fall debuts.

2016-2017 Scheduling Predictions: NBC | FOX | ABC | CBS | The CW

2016-2017 Fall Analysis: NBC | FOX | ABC | CBS

Trailers: No Tomorrow | Frequency

MONDAY

CRAIG’S PREDICTIONS: 8:00 Crazy Ex-Girlfriend; 9:00 Jane the Virgin
SHILO’S PREDICTIONS: 8:00 Crazy Ex-Girlfriend; 9:00 Jane the Virgin
ACTUAL SCHEDULE: 8:00 Supergirl; 9:00 Jane the Virgin

CRAIG: In some ways, I can see the justification for the newly-moved Supergirl on Mondays at 8: It starts the week big; it’s the timeslot that audiences are used to finding the show on CBS; and it will probably be a pretty good lead-in for Jane the Virgin at 9. But it also worries me a bit, because Supergirl is going to have to face not only its previous competition in The Voice, Dancing with the Stars, and Gotham, but The Big Bang Theory in its early weeks as well. Mondays at 8 is a killer slot and they won’t have that habitual CBS audience to keep ratings where they were before.

But who knows. Maybe this will be a swing and a big hit. It does worry me, though. And good on The CW for giving us a superhero show with a female lead again. I wish the best for them. I also pray daily that Calista Flockhart is coming back. And hey – The CW hosted a super Kryptonian in Smallville for several years, and that did well for them. Ultimately, I think The CW will nurture this show and give it a chance it didn’t have on CBS, so that is good, at least. As for Jane? The timeslot works, so no complaints from me there.

SHILO: I’m much more optimistic about the Supergirl move. As you mentioned, it’s staying in the same time slot and will have similar competition to last season, so the only thing really changing about the show’s situation is the network that carries it. While there will be declines going to a smaller network with a lower ratings ceiling, I think Supergirl will be helped by airing somewhere with compatible programming; there were very few shows on CBS that appealed to the same audience as Supergirl, therefore limiting the show’s on-network marketing opportunities. The CW is a much more accommodating environment for Supergirl, both in the sense of being a young network than CBS and carrying a more genre-heavy slate of shows. After averaging about a 1.7 in the Live + Same Day demo this past season, Supergirl can lose an entire point (over half its audience) and more than double Crazy Ex-Girlfriend‘s average in the same slot, so barring unprecedented audience rejection, I think this move will be a success.

The decision to use the show with Jane the Virgin, though, is curious. I understand not wanting to move Jane and I understand putting Supergirl on Mondays, but the two together don’t mesh all that well. Tonally, it’s not a bad match considering that Supergirl is a fairly light show and Jane is one of The CW’s dramedies; it’s just that the content doesn’t seem like it’ll create audience flow. And there’s the whole matter of using what could be their third strongest lead-in on a heavily serialized show already earmarked for four seasons. Due to being produced by CBS and heading into a third season, Jane’s in absolutely no danger next season, so the bump that it’ll get from Supergirl will end up being superficial in that I don’t think it’ll suddenly turn Jane into a show that goes 6-7 seasons. Creatively, the show has never felt like something that can keep going in perpetuity and where it’s been a marginal performer for the majority of its run, the chances of it becoming a major player for the network are almost nil. I just feel like the power that Supergirl will bring to The CW can be better utilized with younger shows that need the boost and whose futures aren’t as guaranteed.