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  1. #1
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    Overnight ratings are in...

    The ratings haven't been posted by GATV yet, so I'll post from a site that I hope is OK!

    http://tvseriesfinale.com/tv-show/we...re-chicago-pd/

    1.64 million viewers and a 0.6 demo.

  2. #2
    Chlark Addict BkWurm1's Avatar
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    Yep, the trend continues. Good episodes bring in a bump in the ratings for the following episode. Hope the demo hold in the final numbers.

  3. #3
    It's the mileage... costas22's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by evaba View Post
    The ratings haven't been posted by GATV yet, so I'll post from a site that I hope is OK!

    http://tvseriesfinale.com/tv-show/we...re-chicago-pd/

    1.64 million viewers and a 0.6 demo.
    A noticeable rise compared to the last 2 weeks. Looks like some viewers were waiting for the Olicity parenthesis to end before they returned.
    Last edited by costas22; 05-12-2017 at 12:55 AM.

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    A noticeable rise compared to the last 2 weeks. Looks like some viewers were waiting for the Olicity parenthesis to end before they returned.
    The ratings for "Honor Thy Fathers" is quite close to the season's medium, if you check the ratings for the whole season:

    http://tvseriesfinale.com/tv-show/ar...-five-ratings/

    So, rather than a bump upwards it's more like a return to normal. My guess is that casual viewers might be tuning in for the final episodes to see the end of the season Big Bad arc. Also, this season Guggenheim and company have pulled all the stops, with the return of Black Siren and cameos by Slade and other fan faves.

    Finally, if "good episodes bring a bump in the ratings", episode 5X5 (with a 1.6 million/0.6 demo) must have been exceptional, since the following episode had a 1.9 million/0.68 demo rating, which is a 20% increase! There have been several other such ratings' bumps (both this season and other season) and I'm sure that they can be used to prove a certain point, depending on your own bias and what you want to accentuate. My own guess would that such fluctuations are pretty random and unrelated to the quality of a certain episode (especially since a "good" ep for one viewer might be a "lackluster" ep for another!) or the preponderance of a certain character/storyline.
    Last edited by evaba; 05-13-2017 at 11:20 AM.

  5. #5
    It's the mileage... costas22's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by evaba View Post
    The ratings for "Honor Thy Fathers" is quite close to the season's medium, if you check the ratings for the whole season:

    http://tvseriesfinale.com/tv-show/ar...-five-ratings/

    So, rather than a bump upwards it's more like a return to normal. My guess is that casual viewers might be tuning in for the final episodes to see the end of the arc. Also, this season Guggenheim and company have pulled all the stops, with the return of Black Siren and cameos by Slade and other fan faves.

    Also, if "good episodes bring a bump in the ratings", episode 5X5 (with a 1.6 million/0.6 demo) must have been exceptional, since the following episode had a 1.9 million/0.68 demo rating, which is a 20% increase! There have been several other such ratings' bumps (both this season and other season) and I'm sure that they can be used to prove a certain point, depending on your own bias and what you want to accentuate. My own guess would that such fluctuations are pretty random and unrelated to the quality of a certain episode (especially since a "good" ep for one viewer might be a "lackluster" ep for another!) or the preponderance of a certain character/storyline.
    A number of factors come into play, but I don't think the quality of the previous episode plays that big a role with these shows anymore. For example, as you can see in the table, the 100th episode was mostly praised for its quality, yet the following week Arrow was back to its usual ratings and gained very few new viewers from the crossover's extra audience. Another example is the Flash. Last week's episode was decent and had a big reveal in the end, yet this week's episode saw zero increase in the ratings.

    Besides the fact that quality is indeed objective, these shows are well known to the public at this stage. The viewers can easily figure how an upcoming episode might look like and they coose whether to watch it immediately or skip it. There are trailers, there are promo stills, there are press releases, there are sneak peeks and there are previews by the producers. In the case of the Flash, this week's episode gained no viewers because its promotional material didn't exactly make it must see. It screamed of filler (and it turned out to be a lousy filler at that, but that's another story). As for Honor Thy Fathers, I think it felt more important to the audience upon its airing because Prometheus would feature heavily. The previous 2 revolved around Felicity, Helix and Olicity (with Prometheus taking a break) and some viewers opted to skip them.

  6. #6
    Chlark Addict BkWurm1's Avatar
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    The numbers always go down in the spring. Always. (Season three still went down from Jan even if the first year of crossovers DID provide a boost for the rest of the year) People might be tuning in for multiple reasons but the uptick of numbers is still a good sign. Too bad we don't know how badly the preemptions affected the numbers the previous two weeks. But I'm sure the CW people do and adjust for it.

    The only people looking at promo stills, previews, press releases or sneak peeks are the uber fans online. The grand majority of viewers still tune in or not based on if they are enjoying the show. And in the digital age, that means if there's good buzz around episodes, or a run of good episodes people might decide to tune in live in the following weeks. After five years, the current numbers watching the show for all we know might never change much, but when and how they watch certainly does.

    (And The special episodes don't keep viewers because they know they are not indicative of the show's regular material.)
    Last edited by BkWurm1; 05-14-2017 at 02:32 AM.

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    Does anyone know how much the viewers that record episodes or buy them on Amazonprime or DVD count?

  8. #8
    Battle Troll DJ Doena's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Freawaru View Post
    Does anyone know how much the viewers that record episodes or buy them on Amazonprime or DVD count?
    DVR watchings are calculated in by now. That's why there are "overnight" ratings (live watchings) and overall ratings.

    Prime watchings and DVD pruchases have no impact on ratings but can have an impact on renewals (if a show is selling well on DVD or internationally like the just renewed Elementary it may get renewed despite less than stellar ratings)

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    Quote Originally Posted by DJ Doena View Post
    DVR watchings are calculated in by now. That's why there are "overnight" ratings (live watchings) and overall ratings.

    Prime watchings and DVD pruchases have no impact on ratings but can have an impact on renewals (if a show is selling well on DVD or internationally like the just renewed Elementary it may get renewed despite less than stellar ratings)
    Thank you.

  10. #10
    Site Groupie President_Luthor's Avatar
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    Beauty and the Beast (the recent Kreuk-led version) would be a prime example of a show that, based on its tepid ratings alone it should have been canned a lot sooner. But, it made money internationally and this kept it afloat for longer.

    With DVR viewing and live streaming, ratings themselves are more complicated (and some would argue less meaningful) than even 5-10 years ago. It's become more complex than simply eyeballs on the screen, where they now parse the results down into a variety of factors that would require the help of statistician to explain. While ratings still hold influence in the industry, they aren't the be-all and end-all that they once were when being declared a "hit" was the endgame. Nowadays, how many shows would even qualify for such a lofty title. NCIS? Survivor or Amazing Race? The Walking Dead? Compared to such leviathans, none of the Flarrowverse shows could ever hope to claim such a title based on ratings alone.

    The network gurus are placing more emphasis on brand "loyalty", the hard-to-define buzz online and on social media and where they land with a particular demographic aka if they attracted younger people entering the workforce, getting a steady job with disposable income, etc.

    Going back to BatB, its ratings were anemic but apparently they were hitting other parameters (including the "making bank globally" one) that justified keeping it on the air, seemingly in defiance of its meh N. American ratings.

    I watched Hell on Wheels on AMC, which never received high ratings. But I would consider it one of the best TV series I've ever watched. And I guess enough people felt the same way about it that the network kept it on for more seasons that it may have merited, if it was judged on ratings alone. It never got huge ratings, but those who did watch it were loyal to it and dedicated. It was appointment viewing for them, and perhaps the network took more stock in having a smaller but loyal audience they knew they could count on in that timeslot than gambling on a bigger but potentially more fickle one.

    Ratings are still relevant in this current TV environment, but not as relevant as they once were with all the rapid changes in technology.
    Last edited by President_Luthor; 05-14-2017 at 01:04 PM.

  11. #11
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    I watched Hell on Wheels on AMC, which never received high ratings. But I would consider it one of the best TV series I've ever watched.
    I feel the same way about "Homeland"! I was shocked when I saw the US ratings, which have been around around 1.5-2.0 for the entire course of the series. Of course, it's cable, so the producers get their money from other sources than commercials. I mean, it's a top notch production with brilliant A-list actors, top writers and production values that Guggenheim and Mericle can only dream of. I'm also sure that this series has been sold to large foreign television channels all over the world, so it's probably doing well for the production team.

    In general I think the advent of cable channels and companies like "Netflix" have changed the whole American television industry (for the better IMHO), and made it more like the European public television channels. In way way the subscriptions to HBO or Netflix is the same as the fee many Europeans pay for their public channels.

    The great thing about BBC and other public channels is that the content and storylines are seldom as heavily influenced by online fandom activity/preferences/"buzz" as the CW shows, simply because they're funded in a very different manner. Ratings and popularity are always important, but I do feel that series produced by public channels have a greater artistic integrity and a willingness to try artistic approaches to storytelling that go beyond the commercial "mainstream" and easily digestible....and the reason for this is that they're not as dependent on ratings, input from advertisers and free PR from various (mostly shipper) fanbases.


    Also, in most smaller countries (i.e. the Scandinavian countries) the actors who get leading parts in public television series are often top actors, who are also employed at prestigeous institutions like the National Theaters, so the acting is IMHO often better than in many American shows. I mean, I have yet to watch a British series where the acting hasn't been spot, even in the smaller roles. Of course, with cable and Netflix you get a similar situation, and that's why US series like "The Killing", "House of Cards" or "Billions" are so good. On the other hand, I still believe that 'live' ratings are important for the US commercial networks, since they often decide whether a show should be renewed or cancelled.
    Last edited by evaba; 05-14-2017 at 02:13 PM.

  12. #12
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    Here is an interesting article on ratings, and how losses in Nielsen ratings have affected the commercial networks (which are the ones that are most dependent on good ratings for their ad revenues):

    http://www.vulture.com/2017/05/2016-...ng-charts.html

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by BkWurm1 View Post
    The numbers always go down in the spring. Always. (Season three still went down from Jan even if the first year of crossovers DID provide a boost for the rest of the year) People might be tuning in for multiple reasons but the uptick of numbers is still a good sign. Too bad we don't know how badly the preemptions affected the numbers the previous two weeks. But I'm sure the CW people do and adjust for it.
    I think the problem with all these speculations and conjectures concerning ratings is that they often seem to be used to "prove" that the poster's favorite character/ship/team are SO popular and essential that they are the ones who draw in the masses of casual viewers that the Nielsen households are supposed to represent. When ratings cannot be used (because they’re average or low), a host of other arguments are brought in (like pre-emptions or season trends) to explain the seeming failure of these same favorites to make any difference whatsoever in the ratings.

    As for the argument that the ratings always go down in the second half of the season/spring, it supposedly holds for all the episodes shown in the Spring, right? If that’s the case, I have a question. When the Black Siren episode "Who are you?" aired in January, I saw many Olicity commentators who claimed that the allegedly low or average ratings for this ep were a proof that Earth 2 Laurel/Black Siren/Katie Cassidy is not popular or relevant for the show's success. And yet “Who are you?” actually managed to get what you yourself now call a very GOOD rating (0.6 demo and 1.68 audience numbers), although it did get lower ratings than the preceding eps.

    Or maybe 1.68 is bad because January is not in the spring, and hence we should have expected a better rating? That may be the case, but the most plausible explanation why many oliciters failed to be impressed with a 1.68/0.6 rating for "Who are you?" is that it involved a character who they consider irrelevant (or even a failure). On the other hand, when “Honor Thy Fathers” gets almost exactly the same ratings, they’re not only considered GOOD, but a testament to the greatness of the PRECEDING (and incidentally Olicity/Felicity-heavy) episodes. I mean, that's what you've been saying in this thread, right? That "Honor Thy Fathers" got such good ratings because it followed two really great episodes.

    This line of resoning is a pattern that is recurrent in the “argument by ratings” strategy that has been used by the Olicity fandom ever since Felicity appeared on the show (and which has subsequently been picked up by other fanbases). Episodes which lack Felicity/Olicity/OTA (especially if they feature Laurel Lance/Black Canary) are predicted to be failures even before they air, because the preferences of the casual viewers apparently mirror the preferences of the hardcore Felicity/Olicity/OTA Internet fanbase.

    For example, before the season three Canary Trilogy, tumblr bloggers and oliciter-heavy forums predicted a major ratings’ drop, since these eps had been promoted as Laurel-centric eps….at least until Marc “I don’t pay attention to any particular fanbase” Guggenheim felt the need to appease “the fans” (i.e the Olicity tweeters who live in his TL) by saying that they weren’t really Laurel-centric. Anyway, when these eps (which involved several other storylines, as most "Arrow" episodes do) actually did great in the ratings, some Olicity fans were quite surprised that “Arrow” audiences might actually be interested in watching Laurel become the Black Canary!

    http://tvseriesfinale.com/tv-show/ar...ratings-34284/

    I’m just giving this as an example of the IMHO pointless endeavor to use ratings, or fluctuations in the ratings, to elevate one particular element/aspect of the show, and concurrently degrade other elements and aspects. I’m also aware that non-shippers now have adopted the same mindset, in the sense that they believe that Felicity and Olicity are ratings’ killers, based on their own intense dislike for the character/ship. I’m just saying that you can’t have your cake and eat it….you can’t on the one hand highlight good ratings whenever they can be used to prop your faves, and then don’t acknowledge or downplay good ratings when they go against your own preconceived notions about the preferences of casual viewers. And by "you" I don't mean you, but fans in general.

    The only people looking at promo stills, previews, press releases or sneak peeks are the uber fans online. The grand majority of viewers still tune in or not based on if they are enjoying the show. And in the digital age, that means if there's good buzz around episodes, or a run of good episodes people might decide to tune in live in the following weeks. After five years, the current numbers watching the show for all we know might never change much, but when and how they watch certainly does.
    I think you're contradicting yourself a bit here. First you claim that the grand majority of viewers don't go online to watch promo pics etc, but just tune in every week based on their current enjoyment of the show. Now, if we look at the ratings for the two Felicity/Olicity-heavy episodes (and disregard the potential impact of the pre-emptions), your theory only holds water if the ratings for 5X20 had gone up after 5X19 had been shown. IF "Dangerous Liaisons" was such a great episode, why didn’t more people tune in to watch “Underneath”? Why did the gain (28%demo change, 21.5% viewer change) come in “Honor Thy Fathers”, which wasn’t Felicity/Olicity-centric? It wasn’t until the “Honor Thy Fathers” that ratings went back to normal (because 1.6/0.6 is NOT an uptick or increase in the ratings, it’s just the season average).

    Maybe I’m being thick here, but what you are basically saying is that Nielsen viewers who (based on the audience numbers) skipped 5X19 and 5X20 tuned in to watch 5X21 because the episodes they did NOT watch were such a “good run of episodes”? IF that’s the case, how could they have learned about these great episodes? I mean, you claim that casual viewers don’t go online and read reviews or fan content, so how could the casual viewers who didn’t watch 5X19 and 5X20 have known anything about the “good Internet buzz” around these episodes? Also, in my fandom corners “Dangerous Liaisons” and “Underneath” didn’t get good fandom reviews/buzz at all….in fact, most fans considered them “filler” and the worst episodes of the season. So, the praises for 5X19 and 5X20 seem pretty much confined to the shipper parts of the fandom, and these fans don’t represent the fandom or the viewership any more than any other fanbase. And I think we’ve all learned by now that social media activity like twitter trends or other conscious campaigns to create social media “buzz” around a specific character/ship has very little impact on the actual viewer numbers/ratings or the mainstream popularity of a show.

    My point is that 5X19 and 5X20 didn’t get any more real buzz or positive reactions than any other season five episode. And even if we factor in that the ratings might have been better if it hadn’t been for the pre-emptions in some markets, I very much doubt that their ratings would have surpassed the season average, which is around 1.6/0.6. So, I really don’t understand the hype surrounding these eps. In my eyes they didn’t stand out much in relation to other eps this season, regardless of whether we’re talking about overall quality, commercial success or general fandom reception.
    Last edited by evaba; 05-16-2017 at 09:18 AM.

  14. #14
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    In math there is something called standard deviation that is the correct way to decide if a deviation of a measured value from it's average is relevant or just random fluctuation:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation

    I have not calculated the confidence interval (if some of you guys have time ... ) but just by looking at the numbers of the ratings I would say that the deviation is always random, meaning: statistically not significant (except for 11.30.2016 maybe). Meaning, any ups and downs are not causally related to what actually happens in the episode.

  15. #15
    Site Groupie President_Luthor's Avatar
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    Love stats stuff like this, but I might be the only one on here. Ratings and how they're collected and deciphered are certainly more complex than the Top Ten listings we tend to be exposed to.

    Sleepy Hollow just got cancelled and if we look at how their S4 ratings trended, it's comparable to many of CW's shows. Yet Sleepy Hollow gets the axe while some of CW's ratings-challenged series are even renewed. FOX is a bigger network, sure, but this indicates that while good/bad ratings can be an indicator of success or failure there are also other factors that ratings themselves can't capture as accurately if at all. And as much as the pro and anti shippers want to make hay that a rise or dip in ratings is due to this or that plot, it more than likely amounted to little impact in the big picture sense.

    All those frustrating hiatuses probably did more to throw off viewers eyeballs than anything Olicity, WestAllen or Maggie/Alex could do.

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