ABC’s 2013-2014 Schedule: Thoughts & Predictions – Page 2

Continued from Part 1

TUESDAY

SHILO: Honestly, the Dancing with the Stars results show is not in any shape to be a lead-in, especially in a fall season that is sure to be insanely competitive. It only sort of helps Body of Proof and even then, the Dana Delaney procedural is close to passing its lead-in with each week. As a result, an ABC with Dancing on in the fall should shuffle it back to 8:00, sacrificing it to the gods of The Voice and protecting higher priority programming in the process. There’s always a chance that The Voice could slip in the fall amid potential viewer burn out or judge turnover, but this slot could be used as a placewarmer for midseason comedies while allowing them to worry about other slots. Plus, it’s a cheap, known quantity that could put up a certain number weekly, something that could come in handy.

I’d put Agents of SHIELD at 9. The only other place where Agents of SHIELD could be realistically placed is Thursdays at 8:00, but ABC Tuesdays is much more in need of help than Thursdays, as it doesn’t have one strong piece returning to the lineup in 2013-2014. 8:00 would seem like a more logical choice, considering how family friendly and big tent the show will likely be, but unless they cut the Dancing results show, the Joss Whedon pilot would end up leading into it, which would defeat the purpose of ordering a show like this. You order something like Agents of SHIELD to launch new programming and benefit the entire night with a halo effect, not try to keep the umpteenth cycle of a softening reality franchise afloat. Having the Dancing results show be only one cycle this season would also allow SHIELD to be paired with yet another new show come winter/spring, helping to maximize its value to a network in need of anchors.

10:00 could go to Murder in Manhattan. In the fall, the only formidable Tuesdays at 10:00 show is FX’s Sons of Anarchy, which obviously skews very heavily male. Therefore, ABC should go for a female-centric pilot that wouldn’t be jarring airing after SHIELD; to me, that pilot is Murder in Manhattan, where a mother and daughter team up to solve murders. It sounds as if it’s closer in tone to something like Castle, a light character procedural with a dash of humor, with similar genre connections in its casting, as Bridget Regan (Legend of the Seeker) and Enver Gjokaj (Dollhouse) are among those slated to star. If ABC goes too soapy in this slot, it could turn off too much of SHIELD’s audience and if they go too male, they risk running into Sons and alienating their core demographic, so Murder in Manhattan seems like a fun, frothy compromise.

If there’s no Dancing, the Dancing results show could be replaced with Shark Tank, a show that has proven to be mighty powerful on Fridays this season. The show is pretty family friendly and has a high enough income skew that it wouldn’t need to do gangbusters to be a success on the night.

CRAIG: I’d start Tuesdays with one of the biggest guns of the Fall: Yep, I’d stick Agents Of SHIELD on Tuesdays to lead off the night, regardless of what airs at 9. The tie in to some of the most successful movies out there, and the Marvel brand, should get people to tune in, as should the participation of that nice Whedon fellow. It also works as good counterprogramming to some of what we see elsewhere, on broadcast and on cable, and it would continue that family strategy that seems to go through my fantasy scheduling routine.

If Dancing is on the schedule, I’d put the results show at 9, and Murder In Manhattan at 10. As you said, it’d be a good female alternative. If Dancing isn’t on the schedule, I’d keep SHIELD at 8, put Murder In Manhattan on at 9, and then lead to another murder mystery show, Castle, at 10, where it could pick up the murder mystery lead-in as well as keep some of the Whedonites, giving fanboys and fangirls Joss Whedon, Agent Coulson, and Nathan Fillion all in the same night, ensuring they are glued to the tube.

WEDNESDAY

SHILO: I’d start Wednesdays with The Middle. While Modern Family gets all the props for holding the Wednesday comedy lineup together, The Middle should be earning more praise, considering how it’s had weaker lead-outs this season and has only barely slipped in the ratings. The show isn’t flashy, isn’t raking in the Emmy awards, and isn’t slapped across magazine covers, but it’s entering into syndication this fall on Hallmark Channel and that could lead to more people discovering the underrated family comedy, further solidifying it as ABC’s 8:00 anchor. Creatively, it’s an interesting contrast to the wealthier Modern Family clan and a show that has gained a little more attention every season, with Eden Sher earning two Critics’ Choice Television Award nominations.

Suburgatory can go on at 8:30. When Suburgatory was placed behind Modern Family, it seemed like the quirky comedy was poised to break out, but it failed to take off and ended its second season down from where it was last season. Being that it flourished when paired with The Middle, it should be returned to 8:30 to see how much life is still in it. This season will be the difference in whether Suburgatory is a solid-yet-unspectacular part of the comedy lineup, racking up seasons while producing critically praised seasons and little buzz, or a borderline performer meant to fill other holes on the schedule and spend its life as a journeyman. The only other place I could see it ending up on the fall schedule this season, though, is Fridays, should ABC be confident enough in its development that it wants to try and launch something at 8:30, as well as 9:30.

Modern Family can stay at 9. The show may not be at the stratospheric heights it was last season, but it’s still a gargantuan performer, an Emmy favorite, and will be entering syndication in September on USA, something that helped the likes of NCIS, House, and Law & Order: SVU take off or sustain themselves over a long period of time. This is a show not going anywhere for quite a while. However, while it’s still at its peak, ABC needs to use the commercial giant to help the rest of its comedy lineup. For the past four seasons, the show has been led out by young-skewing comedies about a group of friends (Cougar Town, Happy Endings, Don’t Trust the B) that are a bit too edgy to be airing after it. As a result, nothing has stuck and Modern Family’s power has gone (mostly) wasted. Therefore, they need to use the Wednesday lineup for stability this fall and leave How to Live with Your Parents on at 9:30 so that it can have a realistic chance to grow. The network tried a similar late season premiere with Don’t Trust the B, only to move it off the night after 6-7 episodes and have it die within less than 10 additional episodes; How to Live is much more in-line and compatible with Modern Family than Don’t Trust the B, though, so there’s a chance that leaving it could allow ABC to cross this slot off its list of times to fix on the schedule.

At 10, I’d put on Nashville. There’s been talk about moving the musical drama to another night (Sundays and Mondays, primarily), but I would leave it alone for next season. The show is similar to the Sunday dramas in that its main problem is erratic scheduling leaving viewers in doubt of when it’s new and when it’s not. Should ABC schedule it move in blocks rather than the typical on-on-off-off-on pattern, the modest live ratings could begin catching up with the buzz the show has generated this season. I mean, Nashville has literally everything else going for it but live success: marketable cast, awards attention, ancillary income, big DVR gains, promotional tie-ins, an entire industry in which to document. Leave it on Wednesdays and more importantly, leave How to Live in front of it, seeing as how the latter’s presence coincided with Nashville raising its ratings game during the last few episodes of its season. Should the network become too tempted to move the show, they need longer no further than Revenge than to see what happens when a decently rated freshman drama in a cursed time slot gets called on to be a hit before it’s ready.

CRAIG: Here’s another case where I’m very much “me too,” and that’ll probably be how I am for most of the line-up, to be honest. I think what ABC really needs is stability, so if they create a stable line-up for Wednesday, it could only go upward in the ratings.

THURSDAY

SHILO: Shark Tank has done well enough on Fridays where it should be taken off the night and moved to one of the network’s more troubled slots. As mentioned above, it wouldn’t need to blow the roof off with its ratings for the change to be a success, as the show is cheap enough to produce and draws enough of a certain type of viewer to where it will be profitable pretty much anywhere. (The added exposure that would come with a weeknight gig could only be a good thing for the show and its longevity.) With CBS possibly moving The Big Bang Theory, NBC in rebuilding mode, and The X Factor a non-factor on FOX, Shark Tank could get a pretty decent foothold and provide Grey’s Anatomy with its first decently rated lead-in since the days of Ugly Betty.

For 9:00, There’s been talk of flipping Grey’s and Scandal, but I think that we’re maybe one more season from that being necessary/plausible. Grey’s is too big and too strong to be moved to 10:00 just yet and it deserves a chance to see what would happen to its ratings with a solid lead-in. That type of help could give it just enough of a boost to stave off death for another few seasons, when it could live the rest of its days in a less competitive time slot.

At 10, I’d put on Scandal. The success story of the 2012-2013 season, Scandal makes for a formidable 1-2 punch with Grey’s and shouldn’t leave its sister show. They feed off of one another and Scandal’s the type of show (a’la Lost, The Vampire Diaries, Pretty Little Liars) that people wouldn’t necessarily watch something after. People who watch Scandal talk about Scandal during the episode and, especially, after its over, so ABC shouldn’t mess with its (unusual for 2013) 10:00 success. Plus, with the astronomical buzz that it’s been receiving this season, you want the consistency of having it stick in the same slot as people keep finding it rather than jumping on its success as a quick fix-it for lesser slots.

CRAIG: Again, the readers are going to think I am lazy, because I am in agreement on all points.

Next: It’s Friday night, and the mood is right. Gonna have some fun, show you how it’s done…